On May 31, 2013, the Boards of Trustees of The Federal Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medicare Insurance Trust Funds (Boards of Trustees) issued the most recent report (the “Report”) on the financial condition of the U.S. Medicare Program. The Board of Trustees oversees the financial operations of the Medicare Part A and Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI), which is Medicare Part B and D. The Social Security Act requires the Board of Trustees to report annually to the Congress on the financial status of the Medicare Program. The Report is 280 pages packed heavily with information and actuarial data analyzing the crippled patient, the U.S. Medicare Program, concluding that the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will not run out of money until 2026, two years later than the last projection. The slightly improved forecast (from the prior report) is due apparently to slower growth in U.S. health care costs, according to current the Board’s analysis.
But whether and when the Medicare Program will go broke is apparently not possible to determine with reasonable certainty. There are too many variables. The Board, comprising or advised by the best the best minds on the subject, have said as much. The Board concedes in the Report:
Projections of Medicare Costs are highly uncertain, especially when looking out more than several decades. One reason for the uncertainty is that scientific advances will make possible new interventions, procedures, and therapies. Some conditions that are untreatable today will be handled routinely in the future. Spurred by economic incentives, the institutions through which care is delivered will evolve, possibly becoming more efficient. While most health care technological advances to date have tended to increase expenditures, the health care landscape is shifting. No one knows whether these future developments will, on balance, increase or decrease costs.
The Report, p. 2.
The Report further indicates that the ACA “The ACA introduced even larger policy changes and projection uncertainty. . . . This legislation [the ACA] contains roughly 165 provisions affecting the Medicare program by reducing costs, increasing revenues, improving benefits, combating fraud and abuse, and initiating a major program of research and development to identify alternative provider payment mechanisms, health care delivery systems, and other changes intended to improve the quality of health care and reduce costs.” Id.
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